@PhDThesis{Alves:2016:ClPrPr,
author = "Alves, Lincoln Muniz",
title = "An{\'a}lise estat{\'{\i}}stica da sazonalidade e
tend{\^e}ncias das esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas e seca na
Amaz{\^o}nia: clima presente e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2016",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2016-04-25",
keywords = "modelo clim{\'a}tico regional, climatologia, Amaz{\^o}nia,
meteorologia tropical, mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica, regional
climate modeling, climatology, Amazon, tropical meteorology,
climate change.",
abstract = "Um dos poss{\'{\i}}veis grandes impactos na regi{\~a}o
Amaz{\^o}nica da mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica seriam
poss{\'{\i}}veis altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es na esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o
chuvosa e seca em termos da dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o (in{\'{\i}}cio e
fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o), intensidade e variabilidade
espa{\c{c}}o-temporal. Este comportamento pode afetar a
estrutura, composi{\c{c}}{\~a}o e funcionamento do ecossistema
assim como a hidrologia da regi{\~a}o. Logo, os objetivos deste
trabalho s{\~a}o descrever e compreender essas poss{\'{\i}}veis
mudan{\c{c}}as no clima presente e tend{\^e}ncias de longo
prazo, e investigar: (a) a variabilidade clim{\'a}tica da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o num cen{\'a}rio futuro de
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas a partir das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas regionais; e (b) analisar a resposta do clima da
Amaz{\^o}nia {\`a} mudan{\c{c}}a da vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o a
partir de cen{\'a}rios de desmatamento. Para atingir esses
objetivos, foi analisada a s{\'e}rie de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
observada no per{\'{\i}}odo de 1979 a 2014, e tamb{\'e}m as
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas geradas com o modelo
clim{\'a}tico regional HadRM3P aninhado a um subconjunto de
quatro simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo global HadCM3 obtidas pelo
m{\'e}todo Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPEs) no cen{\'a}rio de
emiss{\~o}es A1B. Foram tamb{\'e}m realizadas
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo regional, no per{\'{\i}}odo de
1961-2010, com a implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cen{\'a}rios de
desmatamento. De maneira geral, os resultados ressaltaram: (a) os
sinais de varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es observadas na variabilidade da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o nas {\'u}ltimas d{\'e}cadas, em
particular redu{\c{c}}{\~o}es sistem{\'a}ticas nos totais
acumulados de chuva, tend{\^e}ncia de diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa (-0,23
p{\^e}ntada/ano) e aumento na dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o seca (0,21 p{\^e}ntada/ano) sobre o sul da
Amaz{\^o}nia (SAMZ); (b) os potenciais impactos das
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas s{\~a}o redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre grande parte do nordeste da
Amaz{\^o}nia para todas as esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es do ano e
m{\'e}dia anual, enquanto no sul projeta-se aumento durante o
ver{\~a}o e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o nas esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
inverno e primavera; (c) al{\'e}m disso, as proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
indicam uma tend{\^e}ncia de aumento dos eventos extremos de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, tanto chuvosos quanto secos; e (d) as
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo com desflorestamento mostraram
impactos no clima regional atrav{\'e}s de circula{\c{c}}{\~o}es
de mesoescala induzidas pelas heterogeneidades da paisagem (brisas
de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o). Em particular, as
altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas se revelam como aumento nos
valores dos campos m{\'e}dios de temperatura do ar, raz{\~a}o de
Bowen (redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do fluxo de calor sens{\'{\i}}vel e
aumento de calor latente), magnitude dos fluxos de umidade e
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, principalmente, sobre as {\'a}reas
desflorestadas, indicando que o desflorestamento tem uma
contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o importante na gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
microclimas e na variabilidade do clima regional, embora os
efeitos variem espacial e temporalmente. Nota-se, tamb{\'e}m, uma
diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos eventos chuvosos e um aumento na
frequ{\^e}ncia de eventos secos na categoria extremos e muito
extremos. Por fim, o estudo tem repercuss{\~o}es na
biodiversidade, agricultura, recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos e,
portanto, com implica{\c{c}}{\~o}es ambientais e
socioecon{\^o}micas significativas. ABSTRACT: One of the major
impacts in the Amazon region of climate change would be possible
changes in the rainy and dry seasons in terms of duration (onset
and demise), intensity and spatial and temporal rainfall
variability. These changes may have impacts on forest composition,
structure, and function as well as the water resources in Amazon
basin. Therefore, the aim of this study is: to assess the possible
changes in the present-day climate and long-term trends in
seasonal rainfall; to identify possible future climate changes
across Amaz{\^o}nia using regional climate dynamic downscaling;
and to evaluate the impact of land surface changes on the climate
of Amazon basin, particularly on the seasonal rainfall
variability. To achieve these goals, we analyzed the observed
rainfall data in the period 1979-2014, climate projections
generated by regional climate model HadRM3P, nested in a subset of
four HadCM3 global model simulations which are obtained by
Perturbed Physics Ensembles method (PPEs) in A1B emission
scenario. The regional model simulations were carried out in the
period 1961-2010, with the implementation of deforestation
scenarios in the HadRM3P. Our results highlights: (a) the signs of
observed changes in the variability of precipitation in recent
decades, in particular systematic reductions in rainfall
accumulation, decrease the length of wet season rainfall (-0.23
pentad/year) and increase the duration of the dry season (0.21
pentad/year) over southern Amazon (SAMZ); (b) the potential
impacts of climate change are reducing rainfall over great part of
the northeast Amazon for all seasons and also annual mean, while
in the southern Amazon it is projected to rainfall increase during
the summer and reduction in winter and spring season. Furthermore,
there is a tendency to increase the extreme rainfall events, such
as extreme flood and drought; and (c) the model simulations showed
deforestation impacts on regional climate through the mesoscale
circulation (known as vegetation-breeze) induced by juxtaposition
of deforested and forested lands. In a broader context, the
regional impacts of deforestation are air temperature, Bowen ratio
(reduction of sensible heat flux and increasing latent heat), the
vertical integrated moisture transport and precipitation increase
mainly over deforestation areas which indicating that
deforestation has an important contribution on the generation of
microclimate and regional climate variability, although the
impacts can vary across spatial and temporal scales. Besides, a
reduction of extreme wet events and an increase in frequency of
extremes and very extremes dry events. Finally, the study has an
impact on biodiversity, agriculture, water resources and therefore
with significant environmental and socioeconomic implications.",
committee = "Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de (presidente) and Orsini, Jos{\'e}
Ant{\^o}nio Marengo (orientador) and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo
Oliveira e Cruz de and Ambrizzi, T{\'e}rcio and C{\^a}ndido,
Luiz Ant{\^o}nio",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Statistical analysis of seasonality and trends in rainy and dry
season in the Amazon: present climate and future projections",
language = "pt",
pages = "166",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L9KTPH",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L9KTPH",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}